Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado21 dic 25, 3:19 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
[image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694
- Resolves according to statements from Colin, or if he makes none or seems to have succumbed to LLM psychosis himself, my own judgement.
- Broadly interpreted, so e.g. any AI chatbot will count, doesn't have to be ChatGPT.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt24%
- October 31-5.5pt17%
- September 30-4.5pt8%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 11,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 355,4 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Volumen total
- 56,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 292,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.6pt66%
- October 31+4.5pt41%
- September 30+5.0pt24%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 resultados más
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+15.0pt63%
- September 30+19.0pt49%
- September 21+21.5pt42%
+6 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+7.0pt92%
- September 18+10.5pt91%
- September 4+11.0pt87%
+2 resultados más
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 85% a fecha de 12 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Está previsto que LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: [image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694