Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualDec 31 13%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+1.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado10 mar 26, 1:01 UTC1 ene 27, 0:58 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Iran leadership change by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- También disponible en Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 26%
