Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 16 jul 2026, 8:40 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Pronóstico comunitario actualMarch 13 0%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 días
Desactualizado10 mar 26, 1:011 ene 27, 0:58
Tendencias
0%
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
June 301%
Comparar plataformas· Dec 31
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h
También disponible en Polymarket
Iran leadership change by which date?
0.5%5m
-2.5%37%
-4.0%22%
+1.0%12%
+7 resultados más
73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total18,4 M €
Volumen 24h144,9 mil €
POLYMARKET
También disponible en Futuur
Iran leadership change by which date?
5m
30%
5%
4%
28 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total355,1 €
Volumen 24h0 €
FUTUURReglas
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$3.0k38.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaIhace 58 min
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaIhace 58 min$4.1k93.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAllhace 8 h
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAllhace 8 h$10.0k98.5%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdioayer
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdioayer$1.5k96.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90anteayer
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90anteayer$2.9k73.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANanteayer
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANanteayer$4.9k93.3%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooohace 5 d
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooohace 5 d$2.2k94.9%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTismhace 6 d
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTismhace 6 d$6.3k96.4%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoneyhace 10 d
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoneyhace 10 dTendencia de volumen
$188 jul8d de datos16 jul
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Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.