Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual6 - 100 69%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado23 feb 26, 18:37 UTC31 dic 26, 18:25 UTC
Tendencias
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
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KalshiReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 6 - 100 al 69% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill??
- Está previsto que If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria