Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual6 - 100 75%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado23 feb 26, 18:37 UTC31 dic 26, 18:25 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the total number of American citizens and military personnel killed by Iran by the end of 2026 conditional on a US military (kinetic) strike on Iranian territory.
- The count includes deaths from Iranian military, IRGC and any units mentioned here.
- Deaths from indirect consequences (e.g., economic disruption) do not count.
- Deaths by terror attacks count only if Iran takes full responsibility.
- If no US strike on Iran occurs by the end of 2026, the market resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on reliable sources as defined by Wikipedia.