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If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 55%
Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado24 feb 24, 0:52 UTC1 ene 00, 0:57 UTC
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WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]?
- Está previsto que If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.