PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 6%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$322.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
5.2% / 5.9%
Spread
13.5%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 4:02 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Volume trend
$20Jul 88d of dataJul 24
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On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St.
- (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.
- This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.