Current implied probability
Very strong 97%+0.3ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Very strong 97%+0.3ptMarket quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$436.5
Liquidity
$13.8K
Medium liquidityComments
1
7d Change
-18.3 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 8:22 PM UTCOct 16, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Choi-wan.
- Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Choi-wan in an analysis published for the storm.
- Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
- If JMA never assigns Choi-wan an intensity class, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- JMA's own bounds: "the named outcome" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "the named outcome" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.
- JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY".
