Current community forecast
No 90%
Forecasters
95
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 14, 23, 5:32 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get very strong evidence that the universe is Turing computable by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow strong will Choi-wan be?
PolymarketHow strong will Koguma be?
PolymarketRules
The life doesn't need to be intelligent to count.
- Can be microbes on Mars or some exoplanet.
- I define strong evidence for this market to mean that a majority of scientists would agree that it's aliens and not something else (note: not consensus, just majority).
- The reason I'm setting this standard is that I don't think it will be realistic to find conclusive, incontroversial evidence.
- Some examples for what counts as strong evidence:
- Biosignatures on an exoplanet, once the studies showing them have been replicated, confirmed, and accepted by the scientific community.
