US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
8.5% (24h)FedQuarterlyTrade PolicyUS PoliticsGeopoliticsCentral Banks4d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability5%+ 96%+1.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
68.0% / 74.0%
Spread
8.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 10:05 PMJul 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
5%+96%
Compare venues· 5%+
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 96% | — | $1.1K | $6.2K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi90% match · auto | Low | 92% | — | $21 | $8.8K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026
1.0%4d
92%
+1.0%71%
14%
+2 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$25.3K
24h Vol$21
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
- Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026.
- This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
- In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.1kJul 234d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
- Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026.
- This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
- In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".