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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026
US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

11.0% (24h)FedEconomyQuarterlyCentral Banks1mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above 1.5%
Above 1.5% 48%-11.0%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.2

Liquidity

$24

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

48.0% / 58.0%

Spread

20.8%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

May 1, 26, 5:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:25 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Above 1.5%48%

Rules

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Kalshi
  • Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on Jul 30, 2026.
  • The data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on that date.
  • Please see the Rulebook's Instructions section on how to calculate the Underlying.
  • In summary, go to the Source Agency link, click “Edit Graph,” and change “Units” to “Percent Change.” Unlike real GDP growth, this percent change is not annualized.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,601.64+1.73%EthereumETH$1,652.38+1.39%SolanaSOL$65.07+0.84%

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Active in these topics

BNBBNB$595.43+1.28%

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Rules

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Kalshi
  • Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on Jul 30, 2026.
  • The data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on that date.
  • Please see the Rulebook's Instructions section on how to calculate the Underlying.
  • In summary, go to the Source Agency link, click “Edit Graph,” and change “Units” to “Percent Change.” Unlike real GDP growth, this percent change is not annualized.