KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 1.0% 97%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
92.0% / 98.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 1, 26, 5:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:25 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 0.5%93%
Volume trend
$9Jul 179d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
- Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on Jul 30, 2026.
- The data is expected to be released at 8:30 AM ET on that date.
- Please see the Rulebook's Instructions section on how to calculate the Underlying.
- In summary, go to the Source Agency link, click “Edit Graph,” and change “Units” to “Percent Change.” Unlike real GDP growth, this percent change is not annualized.