GeminiLimited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityFed maintains rate 75%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
78.0% / 84.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 22, 26, 4:49 PMJul 29, 26, 6:05 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Fed maintains rate81%
Compare venues· Fed maintains rate
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · auto | High | 80% | -1pt | $2.9M | $5M | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi93% match · linked | High | 81% | 0pt | $814.9K | $28.2M | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 81% | 0pt | $4.8K | $0 | 15 minutes ago | |
 Limitless95% match · auto | Low | 80% | -1pt | $0 | $0 | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Fed Decision in July?
3d
78.8%
19.4%
0.8%
+2 more outcomes
29 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$7.1K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
Fed Decision in July?
1.2 pts1d
+1.2pt79.2%
-0.2pt19.8%
1%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$96.2M
24h Vol$2.9M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
3.0 pts2d
+3.0pt77.9%
-2.0pt19.2%
1%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$37.8M
24h Vol$814.9K
KALSHIRules
Fed decision in July?
- If the Federal Reserve maintains rates at their current level on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k81.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes2h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes2h ago$10.1k81.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes2h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes2h ago$1.7k21.0%KALSHIHike 25bps — Yes3h ago
KALSHIHike 25bps — Yes3h ago$4.0k80.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago$6.0k80.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago$8.0k80.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes3h ago$1.2k81.2%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — YesGladius75h ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — YesGladius75h ago$2.4k83.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — Yes6h ago
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Fed decision in July?
- If the Federal Reserve maintains rates at their current level on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.