KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAbove 10% 15%-5.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.5
Liquidity
$56.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 24.0%
Spread
60.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 7:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Above 10%15%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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KALSHIRules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 12.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.