KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 7.5% 71%+1.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
64.0% / 73.0%
Spread
14.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 7:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 7.5%71%
Compare venues· Above 5%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall90% match · auto | Medium | 96% | — | $827 | $6.4K | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 92% | — | $21 | $8.8K | 11 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
8.0%4d
+1.0%96%
+1.0%95%
+8.0%71%
+3 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$827
POLYMARKETRules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 12.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$21Jul 323d of dataJul 26
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If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 12.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.