PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 66.3%+18.0pt
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$152.4
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 41.0%
Spread
15.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-36.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 7:54 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe.
- If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyPOLYMARKETBank of Korea decision in August?
- 25 bps hike-3.0pt72.3%
- No Change+5.5pt27.7%
- 50+ bps cut0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $55.5K
- 24h Vol
- $9.8K
KALSHIHow low will the S&P get this year?
- 6,300 or below+6.0pt23%
- 6,200 or below+3.0pt23%
- 6,100 or below15%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $802.9K
KALSHIFear & Greed Index on Aug 21, 2026?
- Greed-2.0pt54.5%
- Neutral+20.0pt43.1%
- Extreme Greed-6.0pt0.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $23.8K
KALSHIHow high will the S&P get this year?
- 7,800 or above99%
- 8,000 or above-0.4pt64%
- 8,200 or above-2.2pt36%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?
- Productivity74%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence-9.0pt70%
- Independent / Independence70%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $45.6K
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+2.0pt46%
- Above $4.80+7.0pt40%
- Above $5.0028%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- Which companies will conduct layoffs this year?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- ISM Services PMI - August 2026
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026
- TSA avg check-ins from Aug 17 to 23, 2026?
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
- US electricity price in August
- What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US bank failure by December 31, 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 66% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does US bank failure by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- US bank failure by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US bank failure by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List").