Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
0.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Fujimori 0.2–0.3% (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityFujimori 0.2–0.3% 100%+0.5ptLeader of 23 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleProbability Timeline
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%100%
Fujimori 1%+1%
Fujimori 0.9–1.0%21%
Fujimori 0.8–0.9%36%
Fujimori 0.7–0.8%1%
Fujimori 0.6–0.7%3%
Fujimori 0.5–0.6%15%
Fujimori 0.4–0.5%0%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4%0%
Fujimori 0.1–0.2%0%
Fujimori 0–0.1%0%
Sánchez 0–0.1%1%
Sánchez 0.3–0.4%9%
Sánchez 0.4–0.5%0%
Other3%
Sánchez 0.5–0.6%0%
Sánchez 0.9–1.0%0%
Sánchez 0.2–0.3%0%
Sánchez 0.1–0.2%0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Fujimori 0.2–0.3%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $1.3K | $0 | 22 days ago | |
 Kalshi82% match · verified | Low | 94% | — | $0 | $42.2K | 23 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory?
Closed
Resolved
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% (94%)
81%
6.9%
5.2%
+7 more outcomes
19 • Low qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$86.7K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.6k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? — Yespemul2s24d ago
POLYMARKETWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? — Yespemul2s24d agoVolume trend
$1.3kJul 24d of dataJul 5
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The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.