PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
July 31 100%+0.3ptLeader of 20 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$15.1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+15.9 pts
Market data
Updated 47 days ago
StaleApr 28, 26, 7:05 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
June 303%
June 2325%
June 260%
July 87%
July 3198%
July 1794%
July 1387%
July 36%
July 69%
July 15100%
July 1099%
July 2487%
July 9100%
July 76%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.
- (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market.
- Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GPT-5.6 released by which date??
- Polymarket prices July 31 at 100% as of July 10, 2026.
- When does GPT-5.6 released by which date? resolve?
- GPT-5.6 released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026.
- How is GPT-5.6 released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
