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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

One-OffTrade PolicyGeopoliticsMiddle East18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 1%
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$7K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.8% / 1.1%

Spread

37.5%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.7%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Nov 25, 25, 10:07 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes1%

Rules

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Polymarket
  • Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year.
  • Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx).

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Rules

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Polymarket
  • Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year.
  • Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx).