2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
2.3% (24h)SpaceOne-OffTrade PolicyGeopoliticsMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 1%-0.0%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 2.6%
Spread
2500.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.6%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Nov 25, 25, 10:00 PMSep 1, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes1%
Volume trend
$10Jul 316d of dataJul 24
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Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.
- Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year.
- Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx).