Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 23, 8:03 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsWill the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketS&P close price end of 2026?
KalshiWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1400 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - bear case)
Manifold MarketsRules
For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.
- Intraday extrema will be used to resolve this question, not closing or opening prices.
- Note: The start date of that decade can predate market creation.
- For example, if the SPX dropped below 1,729.44 on Monday, September 18th, 2023 (2 days after market creation), then the question would resolve to YES, since the high-point on September 18th, 2013, was 1,729.44.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $122.2K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 7,800 to 7,999.9917%
- 8,000 to 8,199.9915.1%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9911.3%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5M
- 24h Vol
- $92.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $215.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.2K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+4.0pt16.5%
- 30,000 to 30,499.99+1.0pt7.2%
- 30,500 to 30,999.99-2.0pt6.2%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- ↓ $182+8.9pt100%
- ↓ $180+26.9pt100%
- ↓ $178+46.0pt100%
+17 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- STRC hits $100 by…
- How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034? resolve?
- Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2034.
- How is Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.