Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 16, 23, 8:03 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.
- Intraday extrema will be used to resolve this question, not closing or opening prices.
- Note: The start date of that decade can predate market creation.
- For example, if the SPX dropped below 1,729.44 on Monday, September 18th, 2023 (2 days after market creation), then the question would resolve to YES, since the high-point on September 18th, 2013, was 1,729.44.