Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.2%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- UC Rusal. 2024 actual 3.992 Mt; flat through sanctions period.
- The 4.0 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; deviations depend on geopolitical reset of end-market access rather than capacity changes.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- UC Rusal annual report and interim results https://rusal.ru/en/investors/
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes? resolve?
- Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2029.
- How is Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.