Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.6%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 26, 11:21 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketEbola pandemic in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
I expect this will be fairly easy to resolve in one way or the other, but for a case to count it must be caught on US soil.
- If we bring people into the country who are already sick, that doesn't count.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $35.4K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.5K
- 24h Vol
- $4.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+1.0pt97%
- Above 600059%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.2K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026? resolve?
- Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I expect this will be fairly easy to resolve in one way or the other, but for a case to count it must be caught on US soil.