Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 10, 24, 6:16 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?
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FutuurRules
From @NevinWetherill
- I think a good rule-of-thumb for existing-patient cures would be "a treatment such that those who undergo the treatment at any point after being diagnosed with type 1 do not have a life noticably inconvenienced by any effects of their condition after the treatment."
- Insulin pumps will not count
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.2K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Total Vol
- $18.2M
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India+2.0pt8%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+2.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- On Nov 16, 2026-3.0pt94%
- On Nov 22, 202769%
- On Dec 14, 2026-36.0pt32%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.1K
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
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- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be an FDA approved cure for Type 1 Diabetes by EOY 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 53% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will there be an FDA approved cure for Type 1 Diabetes by EOY 2032? resolve?
- Will there be an FDA approved cure for Type 1 Diabetes by EOY 2032? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will there be an FDA approved cure for Type 1 Diabetes by EOY 2032? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From @NevinWetherill