Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 93.7%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 25, 5:19 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.