Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2028 35.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 23, 2:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾
Manifold MarketsWill there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Latest prototype was just released - will they be selling them sooner or later ?
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpraXaw7dyc
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ? resolve?
- What year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Latest prototype was just released - will they be selling them sooner or later ?