Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
One-OffAIRegulationTech3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 3:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 51.9%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated yesterday
StaleSep 6, 26, 10:25 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
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Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force).
- Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
