Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (50%)
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, 12:14 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 4:31 PMAug 21, 26, 12:14 AM
Trends
50%
50%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if NASA or Katalyst Space Technologies officially announces that the Swift Boost mission has successfully rendezvoused with, docked with, and raised the orbit of the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory to a stable, higher altitude (targeting approximately 370 miles / 600 kilometers) by December 31, 2026.
- This market will resolve to NO if:
- The mission is officially declared a failure or is aborted by NASA or Katalyst Space Technologies before the deadline.
- The LINK servicing spacecraft fails to rendezvous, dock, or successfully raise Swift's orbit by December 31, 2026.
- The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory undergoes uncontrolled atmospheric reentry or is otherwise destroyed.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ? resolve?
- Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ? is scheduled to resolve on August 21, 2026.
- How is Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
