Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.7%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 24, 23, 5:17 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The Sierra Madre is a Philippine Navy ship that was grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratley Islands to serve as a make-shift outpost in the ongoing sovereignty dispute.
- It has been reported that the ship is close to falling apart, China is trying to prevent the Philippines from supplying the site with construction materials and the speculation is that China will try to occupy the shoal if and when the Sierra Madre breaks up or otherwise becomes inhabitable.
- Marines here is understood to include any Filipino armed forces personnel
