Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65%
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Updated 25 minutes ago
Oct 2, 23, 2:58 PM UTCOct 10, 00, 6:59 AM UTC
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By an AI able to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test, I mean an AI system able to reliably pass a 2-hour, adversarial Turing test during which the participants can send text, images, and audio files (as is done in ordinary text messaging applications) during the course of their conversation.
- An 'adversarial' Turing test is one in which the human judges are AI experts (who understand AI weaknesses) instructed to ask interesting and difficult questions, designed to advantage human participants, and to successfully unmask the computer as an impostor.
- A demonstration of an AI passing such a Turing test, or one that is sufficiently similar, will be sufficient for this condition, so long as the test is well-designed to the estimation of me.
- Several tests might be required to indicate reliability.
- By primarily using text, I mean the conjunction of the following:
- Text bottlenecks: there isn’t a path of more than 100k serial operations during the generation of an answer where information doesn’t go through a categorical format where most categories correspond to words or pieces of words, in a way which makes sense to at least some human speakers when read (but it doesn’t have to be faithful).
