Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.6%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 24, 10:03 PM UTCDec 14, 59, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
KalshiWill Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) be announced this year?
KalshiTaylor Swift: Total weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
KalshiWill Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?
PolymarketWho will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
PolymarketTaylor Swift pregnant by which date?
PolymarketRules
She does not have to marry Travis Kelce for this to resolve.
- Any marriage will suffice.
- If she still performs as Taylor Swift, that is not enough to resolve as NO.
- She has to alter her legal name in some form.
- Hyphenating resolves as yes.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries? resolve?
- Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries? is scheduled to resolve on December 14, 2059.
- How is Will Taylor Swift change her name if she marries? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: She does not have to marry Travis Kelce for this to resolve.