Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 7:37 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
98%
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
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PolymarketRules
It's fine if it's in many pieces.
- If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No. If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough.
- I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone.
- Just the engine section is not enough.
- (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!)
