Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.4%
Forecasters
75
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 26, 26, 10:15 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
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PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
It's fine if it's in many pieces.
- If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No. If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough.
- I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone.
- Just the engine section is not enough.
- (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!)
Open markets
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- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
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+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
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- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
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- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
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- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
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- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
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- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
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- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? resolve?
- Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It's fine if it's in many pieces.