Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-5.5pt53.5%
• Anthropic+7.0pt38.4%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$163.2K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-3.5pt52.3%
• Claude+2.9pt37.4%
• ChatGPT7.4%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-2.5pt28.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T+5.2pt22.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-7.8pt19.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-7.0pt86%
• December 15,-6.5pt83%
• November 30,-2.5pt81%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+0.4pt94%
• ↑$1.75T+3.5pt84%
• ↑$2.0T+4.5pt70%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+5.5pt57.6%
• Anthropic-4.3pt42.4%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• Anthropic market share this week
• Google market share this week
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap