Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.1pt98%
• Anthropic-0.9pt1%
• OpenAI+0.2pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$4.1M

24h Vol

$237.8K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+9.7pt55%
• Claude-10.6pt35.2%
• ChatGPT+0.6pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+2.0pt24%
• 2028-1.0pt17%
• 2027+0.5pt9%

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.5pt22%
• 2028+5.0pt18%
• 2027+2.5pt9%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.0pt29.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T+4.4pt21.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.0pt20.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+6.5pt57.1%
• Anthropic-7.5pt34.7%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• Google market share this week
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?