Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.9%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 25, 2:11 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025 iff Zohran wins? (Or less housing if he doesn't.)
Manifold MarketsWhich CA governors will build more housing in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the Chicago Bears build their new stadium?
Manifold MarketsWhen will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?
KalshiConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
KalshiHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
KalshiRules
Completed units, as reported by the planning department.
- 33,974 units were built in 2024.
- https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/1c9138dc24064b2e8142ff156345a719
- https://www.nyc.gov/content/planning/pages/resources?search=housingdatabase#datasets
- https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/pdf/report-24-2025.pdf
- Specific forecasts:
Open markets
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025? resolve?
- Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Completed units, as reported by the planning department.