Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.6%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:35 PM UTCMay 31, 28, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the Nord Pool Nordic system price time-weighted annual average for calendar year 2027 exceeds €45/MWh, as reported by Nord Pool in its annual market summary and on the Nord Pool day-ahead price dashboard.
- Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
- Settlement: 31 May 2028 — about five months after year-end, allowing Nord Pool time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
- Created: 2026-05-04
- The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date.
- Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving.