Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
SportsOne-OffChessPoliticsSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
120
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 9, 23, 7:12 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
