Will "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-2.4pt52.6%
• Claude+1.6pt36.4%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt7.2%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$16.2M

24h Vol

$139.3K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T-1.8pt94%
• ↑$1.75T+6.0pt85%
• ↑$2.0T+1.0pt71%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.0pt30.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.1pt18.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T-3.0pt17.3%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+1.6pt100%
• Alibaba0%
• Amazon0%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

• 1.5T+-5.8pt34%
• No IPO by December 31, 2027-0.1pt23%
• 1.25T–1.5T-0.5pt12%

+4 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-4.0pt56.7%
• Anthropic+3.0pt35%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6.2%

+12 more outcomes

• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• Google market share this week
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?