Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 4:13 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Roblox go bankrupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Twitter (X) Go Bankrupt Before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many companies will go bankrupt this year?
Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketLargest Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
Manifold is currently a tiny company with potential.
- What do you guys think?
- Will resolve YES if Manifold publicly announces they are going bankrupt.
- Will resolve NO if otherwise.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030? resolve?
- Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Manifold is currently a tiny company with potential.