Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 26, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 98, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?
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Manifold MarketsWill JOSE LUIS RICON get a REDNOTE by EOY2027>?
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon bake a cake for @Lydia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will I be able to buy cultured meat at a random Whole Foods?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.1pt97%
- Yes-0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.4M
- 24h Vol
- $71K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- UN / United Nations94%
- China / Chinese / Xi93%
- Iran (3+ times)87%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+3.0pt97%
- Above 6000-1.0pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by which date?
- June 30,-1.5pt87%
- March 31,47%
- Total Vol
- $50.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
POLYMARKETScrewworm National Emergency declared by which date?
- December 31-26.0pt20%
- October 31-31.5pt11%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
POLYMARKETHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- 35 to 49+1.0pt46%
- 50 or more-25.1pt25%
- 20 to 344%
+1 more outcomes
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- What will Hims say during their next earnings call?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
- Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jose Luis Ricon get the bubonic plague by 9999??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54.8% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will Jose Luis Ricon get the bubonic plague by 9999? resolve?
- Will Jose Luis Ricon get the bubonic plague by 9999? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 9998.