Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 7, 26, 4:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get laid in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon, Will DePue, Anson Yu, Alexey Guzey,Claire Wang, & Isaak Freeman all DnD campaign together by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jose Luis Ricon bake a cake for @Lydia in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Jose Luis Ricon bake a cake for @Lydia in 2026? resolve?
- Will Jose Luis Ricon bake a cake for @Lydia in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.