Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 26, 7:11 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This year I am going to try to avoid injuring myself while climbing.
- I do indoor bouldering, sport climbing, and am starting trad climbing this year.
- It needs to be severe enough that I see a doctor, or prevents me from climbing for a month.
- Last year I had two.
- In one I fell and dislocated my elbow, tearing my ulnar collateral ligament in half (but didn't require surgery), which resulted in about a 3 month break.
- In the second I had some weird muscle aches on the other arm that caused me to take a break for about 3 months.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
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- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I injure myself this climbing season??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I injure myself this climbing season? resolve?
- Will I injure myself this climbing season? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will I injure myself this climbing season? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This year I am going to try to avoid injuring myself while climbing.