Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 12:47 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if:
- Google and Mechanize execute a "talent-and-licensing" deal, "reverse acqui-hire," or non-exclusive technology licensing agreement (similar to Google's previous arrangements with Character.AI and Windsurf) where Mechanize continues to exist as an independent corporate entity, even if Google hires a portion of its workforce and pays licensing fees.
- This market will resolve to NO if Alphabet Inc. (or Google) announces a formal, conventional corporate acquisition of Mechanize, Inc. on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- This requires Google to purchase a controlling equity stake (greater than 50%) or 100% of the assets/corporate equity of Mechanize, Inc. Mechanize is fully acquired by another corporate entity.
