Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 8, 25, 11:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rihanna scores a billboard number 1 single in 2026?
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PolymarketWhen will Drake release a new album?
KalshiWhere will Drake perform in 2026?
KalshiRules
The market resolves YES if Drake has a single that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (ranked by sales, streaming, and radio airplay) at any point during 2026.
- Resolution will be verified via the Billboard Hot 100 chart.
- The single must be released or debut on the chart during 2026 to count.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
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+27 more outcomes
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- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
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KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
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KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
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- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Drake have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Drake have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026? resolve?
- Will Drake have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Drake have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves YES if Drake has a single that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (ranked by sales, streaming, and radio airplay) at any point during 2026.