Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 75.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 11:09 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Ed Sheeran Perform at Gillette Stadium in 2026?
KalshiWill Macklemore open for Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour again?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Ed Sheeran has a single that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026.
- The resolution will be verified using Billboard's official weekly Hot 100 rankings.
- This market resolves NO if no Ed Sheeran single reaches #1 on the Hot 100 during 2026.
- Ed Sheeran released his eighth studio album "Play" on September 12, 2025.
- The album was supported by six singles: "Azizam", "Old Phone", "Sapphire", "A Little More", "Camera", and "Symmetry".