Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?
Health & MedicineOne-Off11yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52.7%
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29
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 17, 25, 10:05 AM UTCDec 31, 37, 11:04 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Quoting his article:
- I would bet on the following: A therapy whose sole intended mechanism involves amyloid production or clearance, in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, will, in the next 12 years, achieve a slowdown of cognitive decline of at least 75%, with a p-value below 0.001, in its preregistered primary cognitive endpoint (or an average of all such endpoints if more than one exists).
- I’d eventually expect better than 75% efficacy, but getting stuff to work takes time, and I wanted to make a prediction which can be tested in a reasonable timeframe.
- On the other hand, if a clinical trial completes earlier than 12 years from now (perhaps [73], reading out in 2027), sustains extremely good amyloid clearance at the preclinical stage, and has a good safety profile, but doesn’t make substantial progress towards this 75% goal, then I would consider this prediction refuted in advance.
- Resolves yes if the first condition occurs by the end of the market
- https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-defense-of-the-amyloid-hypothesis
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 53% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years? resolve?
- Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2037.
- How is Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Quoting his article: