Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:35 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill China have active export controls on zirconium oxychloride (ZOC) on December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWorlds 2026 Winning Region
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on June 30, 2027 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
- YES if: Export licenses are required for samarium as of June 30, 2027 NO if: Controls are suspended or permanently rescinded on June 30, 2027
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements
- China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements
- Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy
