Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2026?
ChinaOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.8%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
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This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on December 31, 2026 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.
- Background: MOFCOM Decree No. 18 (April 2025) imposed export licensing requirements for samarium.
- A one-year suspension was announced in November 2025 following Busan diplomatic negotiations.
- The suspension expires approximately November 2026.
- December 31 is 4-6 weeks after expiry — controls either reimposed or extended.
- YES if: The suspension has expired without extension (or been revoked early), and export licenses are required for samarium as of December 31, 2026 NO if: The suspension has been extended or controls permanently rescinded, such that no license is required on December 31, 2026