Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 2:17 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China natural graphite mine production for 2026 exceed 1050 kt?
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if China's total natural graphite mine production for calendar year 2026 exceeds 1300 kilotonnes (kt), as reported in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
- What is measured: Total China mine production of natural graphite (all types: flake, amorphous, vein) for January-December 2026, in kt, as reported by USGS MCS (published February 2027, approximately 1 month before the March 31, 2027 settlement).
- YES if: China 2026 natural graphite production >= 1300 kt NO if: China 2026 natural graphite production < 1300 kt
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Graphite section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February 2027
- USGS National Minerals Information Center graphite statistics
Open markets
China
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China natural graphite mine production for 2026 exceed 1300 kt??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China natural graphite mine production for 2026 exceed 1300 kt? resolve?
- Will China natural graphite mine production for 2026 exceed 1300 kt? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will China natural graphite mine production for 2026 exceed 1300 kt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if China's total natural graphite mine production for calendar year 2026 exceeds 1300 kilotonnes (kt), as reported in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.