Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 92.9%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 23, 7:20 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
PolymarketWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt98%
- October 31-2.0pt96%
- September 30-1.9pt94%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $51K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No89.1%
- Yes10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $32.4K
POLYMARKETPuerto Rico/China vs. France
- France+7.2pt100%
- Puerto Rico/China-7.2pt0%
- Total Vol
- $26.7K
- 24h Vol
- $26.7K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $26.4K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 11?
- 32°C+20.5pt47.1%
- 31°C-16.0pt38.2%
- 30°C-4.5pt6.9%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.0pt70%
- Moonshot-2.5pt25%
- Z.ai-0.2pt3%
+8 more outcomes
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
- Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
- Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030? resolve?
- Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.