Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028?
RegulationOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 3:11 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Ytterbium-176 production from ASP Isotopes in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 3.0 kg by 2028-12-31.
- Measurement methodology:
- Calculate total Ytterbium-176 production that was completed during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
- For 2028-12-31 settlement: measure production from 2027-07-05 to 2028-10-02
- "Production" means enriched Ytterbium-176 that reached target purity (≥99.75%)
- Sum all production from ASP Isotopes' Quantum Enrichment facilities
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028? resolve?
- Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Ytterbium-176 production from ASP Isotopes in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 3.0 kg by 2028-12-31.