Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 23, 5:50 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Based on data from the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), it is widely believed that there is frozen water trapped in Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR) in craters near the lunar poles.
- If such water exists, it could prove an extremely useful resource for any future lunar missions, primarily because it could be used to manufacture fuel in-situ, reducing the amount of weight spacecraft must bring to the lunar surface if they hope to lift off again.
- By 2030, will any water have been mined on the Moon? Water collected purely for scientific purposes does not count, it must be collected with the intention to use as a resource.
- A demonstration system to illustrate the feasibility of collecting lunar water as a resource is sufficient, even if the water collected is not actually used.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? resolve?
- Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on data from the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), it is widely believed that there is frozen water trapped in Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR) in craters near the lunar poles.