Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Corporate Actions AIOne-OffBusiness & Corporate

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (99%)

Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 9:40 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 99%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale

Jan 12, 26, 12:52 AMAug 15, 26, 9:40 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes1%

No99%

99%

Yes

Rules

Prop resolves Yes if, by August 15, 2026, any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks have an IPO or direct listing with closing market cap over $200 billion.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Corporate Actions AIOne-OffBusiness & Corporate

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: No (99%)

Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 9:40 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 99%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale

Jan 12, 26, 12:52 AMAug 15, 26, 9:40 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes1%

No99%

99%

Yes

Rules

Prop resolves Yes if, by August 15, 2026, any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks have an IPO or direct listing with closing market cap over $200 billion.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026??: Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 16, 2026.
When does Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026? resolve?: Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2026.
How is Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Prop resolves Yes if, by August 15, 2026, any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks have an IPO or direct listing with closing market cap over $200 billion.

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

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