Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.3%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 23, 4:53 PM UTCOct 20, 32, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade
Manifold MarketsWill LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) be added to the S&P 500 by the end of 2026?
ForecastExWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRules
As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
- "I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
- Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
- I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
- Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
- This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $289.9K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt44%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-13.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before May 1, 2027+5.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt47%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $122.2K
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) resolve?
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2032.
- How is Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'