Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCOct 20, 32, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
- "I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
- Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
- I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
- Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
- This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
