Current community forecast
No 65.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 26, 8:47 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035
Manifold MarketsWill the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?
Manifold MarketsWill 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill The US Have A Lunar Nuclear Reactor on the Moon by the end of 2035
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
This market asks whether a space agency from Asia — primarily CNSA (China) or JAXA (Japan) — will be the first to successfully return a scientifically intact, uncontaminated sample from the Martian system (Mars itself or either of its moons, Phobos and Deimos) to Earth, ahead of any Western agency (NASA, ESA, a joint NASA/ESA effort, or other Western agencies such as CSA).
- The geopolitical landscape of Martian sample return has shifted dramatically in early 2026.
- NASA's Mars Sample Return (MSR) program, a joint effort with ESA to retrieve samples already collected by the Perseverance rover, was effectively cancelled by a US Congressional spending bill in January 2026, leaving Perseverance's tubes sitting on Mars with no confirmed retrieval plan.
- Two Asian missions are now the primary contenders:
- JAXA MMX (Martian Moons eXploration): launched late 2026, targeting Phobos sample return to Earth in 2031.
- Hardware has already arrived at Tanegashima for launch preparation.
